Oscar De La Hoya - Manny Pacquiao: The Biggest Fight Of The Year Cuts Two Ways

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December 1, 2008 at 12:06 AM

Oscar De La Hoya - Manny Pacquiao: The Biggest Fight Of The Year Cuts Two Ways

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(Please join us all week long for daily De La Hoya/Pacquiao coverage, leading up to a live blog Saturday night. Today: Why the fight matters, and what its result means for boxing.)

A total joke. Earlier this year, that's what I thought of Oscar De La Hoya fighting Manny Pacquiao. In the first half of 2008, in separate bouts, De La Hoya and Pacquiao were 20 pounds apart, and that's just the beginning of what was flawed about the bizarre concept.

I'm less sure of it being a total joke now. For one, it's going to be the biggest fight of the year by far, and in a year that has had as many missed opportunities as it has successes, that's redeeming. For another, what once appeared to be a complete mismatch increasingly has taken on the look of what could be a pretty good scrap, in part because of exceptional hype and in part because both combatants have allegedly trained in such a way as to minimize the size gap.

But it isn't enough. For De La Hoya-Pacquiao to be an honest-to-God good event, things have to turn out a certain way.

What's wrong with the fight, as I said, starts with size. And it's not just limited to the recent past. Pacquiao's first recorded weight as a professional was 107 pounds, back in 1995. De La Hoya's first recorded weight as a professional in 1992 was 134 pounds, which is about what Pacquiao weighed this June in his lightweight (135 lbs.) debut, and De La Hoya has fought as high at 160 pounds. That is a major, major difference. One man has always been much bigger than the other, and it's hard to underestimate the effect that has on their respective bodies, even though both have to weight no more than 147 pounds at the weigh-in Friday.

Competitively speaking, both men should be fighting opponents their own size. Pacquiao should be giving a rematch to lightweight champion Juan Manuel Marquez, or fighting another opponent in the deep lightweight division, or taking a smaller step up in weight to fight junior welterweight (140 lbs.) champion Ricky Hatton. De La Hoya shouldn't be building what could turn into a four fight streak of taking on smaller men, and instead should be fighting people like Antonio Margarito, or if he wants more winnable bouts, at least taking on the similarly-sized Shane Mosley and Sergio Mora.

But money talks. There's nobody Pacquiao and De La Hoya can fight outside of each other where they can make this much cash. Some small percentage will be tuning in because of the circus aspects of this bout, to see if the pint-sized Pacquiao can upset the bully De La Hoya, or to see if De La Hoya can pulverize his little opponent. The distinct possibility that Pacquiao could be badly hurt has been a running criticism of the match being made.

Money talking, it just so happens, isn't inherently a bad thing. There are legitimate reasons this fight will sell, outside of morbid curiosity. Pacquiao and De La Hoya both have considerable fan bases, and Pacquiao's fan base, while divided about the fight, largely wants to see their man prove everyone wrong. It is a remarkable storyline: Pacquiao has always fueled the hopes of a nation, but it's impossible to say just what kind of ecstasy would erupt in the Philippines if he won. As Filipino fighter Nonito Donaire told me last week, some people in the Philippines suffer from a lack of confidence, and Pacquiao boosts their self-esteem. A tiny Filipino upsetting a much larger opponent who happens to be the biggest name in the sport? I don't think you could come up with a more inspirational scenario for the people of the Philippines if you tried.

It also has the "best versus the biggest" angle going for it. Pacquiao is unanimously the top fighter on the planet of any size. Some still consider De La Hoya an elite fighter himself, but mainly he's the most recognizable name among active boxers in the world. When Floyd Mayweather fought De La Hoya, there was less drama in the "biggest versus the best," because Mayweather was the easy pick to win that fight. Instead, for De La Hoya-Pacquiao, the best will have to be better than ever to beat the biggest. It's a more interesting dynamic, in a way.

A boxing match that does brisk business in 2008 is a welcome development, and De La Hoya-Pacquiao should do brisk business. I'd guess it gets about a million buys domestically, even in this economy. There have been other profitable bouts this year, but in the category of pay-per-view successes, 2008 has been a step back from 2007. That's not a good trend, but the hows and whys are the subject for another day. At any rate, De La Hoya-Pacquiao should go some ways toward making up lost ground.

And lastly, there's evidence to suggest that the size gap won't be as big as some, myself included, originally feared. The reported weights of both Pacquiao and De La Hoya during training camp have fluctuated dramatically. De La Hoya at one point reportedly slipped all the way down to 145, which is shocking considering that some thought he'd have trouble making 147 after years of fighting at a higher number. At around the same time, Pacquiao was hovering at about 153 -- meaning that there was a chance that come fight night, Pacquiao could be the heavier man, owing to the likelihood that Pacquiao would rehydrate to a higher weight than De La Hoya could. Now, there is reason to be suspicious of these reports. Recently, on the 24/7 documentary show hyping the fight, De La Hoya's scale read 155. Pacquiao, on one recent day, reportedly weighed 141. Whatever the true weight of each man, there are independent reports that Pacquiao has looked like he's maintained his power at the new weight, and old doubts about whether De La Hoya will be weight drained, along with whether he is merely too old for a young gun like Pacquiao, all point to a more competitive bout than I originally imagined.

That's what this fight needs to be: A competitive affair. Why?

If Pacquiao gets blown out early, it will be egg on the face of boxing. All the critics who thought this was a circus, a dangerous gamble, will be proven right, and boxing's reputation will take another hit. De La Hoya will come out looking like a coward who picked on too small an opponent, which could hurt public opinion of him that's already seriously divided in the world of hardcore boxing fans. Pacquiao's rep may not suffer so much, since he's the one coming in with the apparent disadvantage, but for neophytes, should the first time they lay their eyes on Pacquiao he gets plastered, they won't exactly be clamoring to see him again, because they won't know any better.

If, on the other hand, Pacquiao stomps De La Hoya, it's a better outcome but one that has its own down side. If I was nominating someone I want people to think of when they think of boxing, purely for in-ring action, Pacquiao would be one of my leading candidates. No one who I've shown his fights has come away with anything but an enhanced love of boxing, because he fights with such ferocity and even his most boring fights to date have been far better than the average night of fisticuffs. Pacquiao's outside-the-ring activities, like his charity efforts in the Philippines and his courteous treatment of his opponents, all present a nice image (especially since he's reportedly dropped some of his, shall we say, bad habits, such as cockfighting). But Pacquiao can't match De La Hoya in the superstar category, not yet. And make no mistake; if De La Hoya loses this fight by anything other than the closest of decisions, it will almost assuredly be the end of his superstar run. Losing to a man who recently weighed 130 pounds would be the nail in the coffin of any notion that De La Hoya remains among the elite. And boxing without De La Hoya, absent an obvious replacement for the kind of attention and revenue he's brought in over the last decade or so, is a bleaker place than we probably realize.

Whatever the result, the winner probably fights Hatton next, ensuring another "super fight."

But a competitive fight this week avoids all the pitfalls of suffering reputations and boxing looking ridiculous. So for all the usual reasons -- I just like great fights, after all -- and for a few unique ones, here's hoping this one-time "total joke" turns into a "pretty good scrap."

(Tomorrow: Keys to the fight, part I.)

Categories: Antonio Margarito, Column, Floyd Mayweather, Juan Manuel Marquez, Manny Pacquiao, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Sergio Mora, Shane Mosley

Discussion

49 Comments on "Oscar De La Hoya - Manny Pacquiao: The Biggest Fight Of The Year Cuts Two Ways"

Posted by Big John, December 1, 2008 4:34 AM

Nice article. Coming into the fight I thought De la Hoya was gonna win handedly. But watching 24/7 has gotten me excited. Pacquiao looks incredible and despite the size difference, a punch is a punch. It doesn't matter who throws it, a midget or a giant, it's gonna hurt.

Boxing needs this fight and I believe it'll be a helluva fight. I just hope it matches DLH-Mayweather in the spectacle part. Who knows? Despite the cricitism, it may turn out to be a classic.

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from Big John, December 1, 2008 5:03 AM

Thanks, Big John.

I'm hopeful it will be a good fight, and I'm currently expecting it to be. I think Pacquiao might have made up enough of the size gap and De La Hoya's age and inactivity work against him. We'll get into some of that Monday...

Posted by CHOLXZ, December 1, 2008 6:16 AM

If I were Manny's wife who is Jinkee Paquaio that the only thing she needs to tell Manny the night before the fight and Manny needs to listen to pump him up is Oscar is better looking man than he is and Manny needs to pulverize Oscar to make for his disadvantage in looks!!!

Posted by PacAllTheWay, December 1, 2008 6:19 AM

If Pac loses, he can't be blamed for taking the fight. Any boxer regardless of weight disadvantage will jump on the opportunity to earn $10-$20M. And if DelaHoya wins, he'll be teased for taking a much lighter opponent and running from Margarito using the excuse that he's a fellow Mexican. What an excuse. Dela Hoya is in a NO WIN situation in this fight, win or lose. But he glaringly admitted that his goal is to be a billionaire, so to hell with criticisms.

Posted by Viel Mervic, December 1, 2008 6:31 AM

Oi, I can't wait for this one! It's just 6 days left before the fight, and I really can't wait! Actually Tim, I'm not gonna lie about it, I want Pacquiao to win. Not only because he's our idol (I hate it when people label Pacquiao as somewhat like our God! Are they kidding me?! He's nowhere near that, plus he's awful in perhaps everything except boxing and generosity) but because I want Pacquiao to prove them all wrong. I am currently tallying the names of people who doesn't think Pacquiao can't win this fight and should he be successful, you Tim will be the first one to receive the list of names that I mentioned. Do anything you want with it, erase it, write it, publish it, it doesn't matter. Although I would really love to see it a part of your column here, even in just a tiny part. Can't wait!!!

Posted by mike, December 1, 2008 6:36 AM

To author of this article: A nice and well-rounded approach to understanding and appreciating this fight. I believe Pacman will win because of sheer desire and need on his part to win. To the comment of CHOLZ: the "better looking" part should not be in there. This is boxing. "Art is in the eyes of the beholder" To Jinkee and the Filipinos and others who adore Pacman, he is the best looking in the world.

Posted by Al in reply to comment from Big John, December 1, 2008 6:55 AM

Dude, a punch is a punch but there are differences in power, reach, mass and size of that punch. Be a little more dynamic man. After all, a punch isnt just a punch when you have, say, a 3ft midget against a 6 footer. A punch isnt a punch when your opponent is constantly moving around who has higher hit percentage. Get my drift?. To be honest i dont know who'll win this, i love both fighters. Reason why and seems like they were put to fight each other is always about MONEY $$$

Posted by UNOR H.S. Batch 89, December 1, 2008 7:14 AM

Nice article Tim,

More power to Pacman!

Posted by B-YING, December 1, 2008 7:16 AM

Well,it's an exciting...a must jugular fight of all time...PACMAN packs with speed and power darted ODLH a ferocious TKO...Long live!!! PACMAN, the warrior of GenSan...expected to be a minutes of silence ,all eyes are on pacman fight...and then a long days of celebration of all Filipinos cheering pacman for his victory.

#10

Posted by Frankcoy, December 1, 2008 7:44 AM

Pacman will win if he is 100% ready come fight night.

#11

Posted by Duke66, December 1, 2008 7:44 AM

Manny will kick Oscar butt off.. Watch out

#12

Posted by sunboy, December 1, 2008 7:58 AM

Welcome back Mr. Tim Starks!

#13

Posted by eric, December 1, 2008 8:08 AM

Pacquiao will win in just 4 rounds believe me man. I'll promise you that.

#14

Posted by Adriano Ventura, December 1, 2008 8:57 AM

Within "6" rounds Oscar dela Hoya will KNOCKOUT by Pacquiao.Remember Erik Moralaes was knockout in "3" rounds.David Diaz knockout in "9" rounds.
(3)
(6)
(9)
Thats the favorite knockout numbers of Pacquiao!!!

#15

Posted by punol, December 1, 2008 9:15 AM

3 rnds been filled, 9th rds. is done so this time, tko in 6th, eiher by cut or stopped by referee

#16

Posted by vino, December 1, 2008 10:09 AM

you guys are mad! These guys are giving us a very special fight to watch. Why you have to throw bad comments for both of them? Just pray for both of them to display their very best performance ever. If that happens, no one will be a losser and viewers dont care who won the bout. What matter most is they seen the best bout of ever.what will be in their mind is when will be the rematch.

#17

Posted by pacmania, December 1, 2008 10:26 AM

nice article i like this one, for me this fight of pacman is just another level another big gate, to be a superstar if he wins. nxt time i want floyd mayweather to fight pacman on top of the ring.... people will like it...

#18

Posted by hardknoxz, December 1, 2008 10:44 AM

going back to the "old school". when weight is not an issue and the bigger guys might get the beating and its a classic match up just like my grandfather used to watch. its been rare nowadays. its quite fun and interesting too.

Its good when money is involved. youll never knew if it will be possible to see those guys fight and they did., even if the odds are great. still interesting to watch. hope it will turn a great fight regardless of all those present speculations.

#19

Posted by ed umali, December 1, 2008 11:36 AM

Good article. I clearly see what the author is saying here. Can't wait o watch the fight.

#20

Posted by isidro, December 1, 2008 11:39 AM

several months back the arguments are bad that curse- after -curse were made of this shaping -up match as it is then.In a normal sort of things, this won't materialize at all, no matter how marketing genious you do or hyping for that matter too.I do believe that this match is really bound to happen;moneywise,historywise it doesn't matter. Boxing's loss or gain ? the picture now is much clearer,it is a gain.Obviously it is in the center of sporting events happenings.Pessimism in the post fight scenario is as valid as optimisms of today.Hope and prayers for both boxers....will be a great fight!

#21

Posted by meximerican, December 1, 2008 12:31 PM

Pacfans will be disappointed come fight night! pacman will not fight as he used to be, he wont fight head on coz he is afraid is career will end.

he cheated you pacfans!

he will be more concerned on the money and future fight. roach and pacman will cheat the boxing world.

expect a NO FIGHT!

#22

Posted by tony m. bangalisan, December 1, 2008 12:51 PM

regarding dela joya - manny pacquiao fight, win or lose, the sure winner will be the Filipino people

#23

Posted by Ace, December 1, 2008 12:52 PM

Oh my goodness! for me I think this fight is either way and no mismatch! bcoz Manny was trained to fight as tall as DLH, they learn and study those! so, why are you thinking it's a mis match? do you think DLH is so powerful? let me ask you this! when was the last time DLH knock boxer out? it was May 2006? isn't it? 2 1/2 yr difference! and he's getting old. Can DLH still pull the trigger?

#24

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from CHOLXZ, December 1, 2008 5:33 PM

Pretty funny stuff, cholxz.

#25

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from PacAllTheWay, December 1, 2008 5:35 PM

You're right, PacAllTheWay. Even though I want a third Pacquiao-Marquez fight more than any other in the sport, I cannot at ALL blame Pacquiao for taking that mountain of money. For Oscar, I think big money-making fights are an ego thing, but that's just speculation. At any rate, he is kind of in a no-win situation here in some ways.

#26

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from Viel Mervic, December 1, 2008 5:37 PM

HA! Viel, you're trying to turn my column into the House Un-American Activities Committee. But I'll gladly receive the list and then decide what to do with it.

#27

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from mike, December 1, 2008 5:38 PM

Thanks for the kind words.

#28

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from UNOR H.S. Batch 89, December 1, 2008 5:39 PM

Thank you, sir.

#29

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from B-YING, December 1, 2008 5:40 PM

If Manny wins, I think the most fun place to be on the planet that night will be the Philippines. (Unless everyone riots like they do in some U.S. cities when their sports team wins.)

#30

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from sunboy, December 1, 2008 5:41 PM

I didn't realize I'd left. But thanks.

#31

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from vino, December 1, 2008 5:42 PM

This is kinder than some of the remarks we get around here, vino.

#32

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from pacmania, December 1, 2008 5:42 PM

Thanks for the kind words. On TOP of the ring? Like a steel cage match?

#33

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from hardknoxz, December 1, 2008 5:44 PM

Oh, even back in the old days, sometimes the smaller guy didn't beat the bigger guy. I recommend this story: http://www.thering-online.com/blog/63/lets_go_to_the_history_books/

#34

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from ed umali, December 1, 2008 5:44 PM

Thanks, friend.

#35

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from isidro, December 1, 2008 5:45 PM

I hope you're right.

#36

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from meximerican, December 1, 2008 5:46 PM

I doubt Pacman can adjust his style that radically, but I do think he needs to be cautious.

#37

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from Ace, December 1, 2008 5:48 PM

De La Hoya is 1 for 3 in his last three fights on the knockout front. Two of his opponents were defensive specialists, Mayweather and Forbes. I think his power is real.

#38

Posted by Tim Starks, December 1, 2008 5:49 PM

Tony, Punol, Adriano, Eric, Al, Frank, Duke:

Thank you all for your comments.

#39

Posted by Sean Malone, December 1, 2008 6:42 PM

I agree with your thoughts Tim. Now that the size differential does not seem so large, I'm looking forward to this event. If for no other reason than our beloved sport being thrust into the mainstream light.

#40

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from Sean Malone, December 1, 2008 7:28 PM

But it's gotta work out JUST RIGHT, man. Just right.

#41

Posted by darcan, December 2, 2008 2:38 AM

Months ago I'm sure it was a mismatch and a moneyfight for both fighters but as the time comes and with the development/hype continues I'm now thinking twice regarding the mismatch tag but not for the $$$$ thing. I'm pretty sure it's the $$$$ that counts most even if they say it's personal or so.... $$$$ can buy the hell out of ODLH and PACMAN. Money talks and both fighters listen. But, on the other side of it lets hope this will be a great fight. Let them prove this is "The Dream Match" and not a one-sided mismatch. Hope PACMAN wins,TKO/UD, a win is a win and will cement his stature better more.

#42

Posted by Dan, December 2, 2008 4:01 AM

Nah

The weight issues are media hype, as is the shoulder injuries, pulling the trigger, Roach's "secret" weapon. Oscar has been a pro for what 16 years now? And only now have they found his ultimate weakness? Tim you know this game in and out, the media has to build Pac as a "live" dog. That's what 24/7 is for, to make the underdog look better than he is. I saw Pac working the pads, and I saw nothing new. He looked exactly the same, a bit more flat-footed and mechanical than usual. The man's been a pro for like 15 years, and it's not like he's a young fresh chicken in there with a fossil. He's shown decline in explosiveness and creativity in the 2nd Barrera and Marquez fights. He was staggered at times by a 130lb Juan Manuel Marquez.

Do you think there is no agenda behind reports of Oscar having problems being leaked, while reports of Pac looking great are pouring out?

My average wager size is 50$-100, Ive already bet 1200 on Oscar straight (-190), 500$ on this not going the distance (+120), and small wagers on Oscar 1-3 (+1200) and 4-6 (+800). And there's still 5 days to go. I'm betting all the profits I've made over the past few months on one single bout.

My opinion is that this is a gross mismatch, and that Hoya has the capability to completely conquer and dominate Pac, and knock him out within 3 rounds. My concern as a bettor is that he carries him for the sake of the event, to make Pac look like a more formidable foe than he is. You covered that point excellently Tim, if I strongly believed Hoya wanted to make a statement, I'd bet big on him to win within 3 rounds. But I wonder if he's thinking about his reputation and the reputation of the bout, and will thus hold back and give Manny more opportunity than he deserves. At some point in the first few rounds he's going to stagger Manny BAD with a left hook or even just a flush jab, even if he doesn't follow up and go for the kill we'll know he's holding back.

Forbes was a defensively slick counter puncher with a great chin. Pac eats jabs for breakfast, keeps his chin exposed, comes straight in and out, and has to fight going forward. 5 years ago Manny fought at 120lbs. Oscar is a superior tactician, with an excellent stiff jab and a timely left hook counter, he throws in combinations and fights best when when counter-punching. This is a terrible stylistic match-up for Pacquiao, even if you ignore the size gap.

This has 'ass-whooping' written all over it.

I probably should have saved this post for the prediction thread, but what the hell. You're correct about the importance of this fight turning out competitive and respectable, but as a bettor, I can't hope with you. I'm hoping for a mismatch, future be damned!

#43

Posted by Analysis Paralysis, December 2, 2008 7:11 AM

Dan,

I think your a smart guy and you know what your doing but pls do remember that sometimes our analysis whether based on scientific method or personal experience could be wrong.Although I dont want to be too religious but "miracles or divine intervention" happens anytime.

Glad to hear from you on Dec 07., when Pacman was done with his own little miracle.

David beats Goliath again.

History is repeating itself.

Bravo!

#44

Posted by Russian Guy, December 2, 2008 9:59 AM

Dan,
Idiots do appear in every column, so you're the lucky 1st girl! Hooray! Prediction is sheer stupidity when you are too confident about it. I do believe Dollar Hoya will win this, but my heart and ass goes to Fuckman. He will be fucked by Hoya but I'm hoping he can stand a chance. I've seen their tool(fists), Fuckman has about half the width of pretty Girl Hoya. Obvious advantage in punching power. Who knows, Fuckman's banana might be harder to swallow than Oskies' burat.

#45

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from Dan, December 2, 2008 1:57 PM

Oh Dan, the Pacfans were all pacified for the moment, and look what you've done.

Anyway, you make a great many valid points. You'll note that I prefaced many of my remarks about weight with "allegedly" and all kinds of caveats. Without having seen your comment until today, you'll also note that in my "Keys to the fight I" I made some of the same points you did, and in my "Keys to the fight II" I'll make some more of the same points you did.

#46

Posted by Tim Starks in reply to comment from Dan, December 2, 2008 1:59 PM

Oh, and I failed to note:

The independent reports I speak of about Pacquiao looking very powerful at the new weight come from people like Doug Fischer who have watched him spar. He's not just taking Freddie Roach's word for it.

#47

Posted by Dan, December 2, 2008 3:32 PM

Analysis Paralysis, I will eat crow if im wrong. More than eat crow, I will be eating canned soup for the next month, as I've wagered so much on Oscar winning.

Miracles do happen, but I wouldn't bet on it.

#48

Posted by Dan, December 2, 2008 3:35 PM

Thanks for the Fischer tidbit Tim, I haven't been checking out MaxB for a while. I have noticed Freddie Roach giving interviews to everyone and their mothers, I'm glad you're not taking his word for things.

#49

Posted by lumpia, December 8, 2008 12:35 AM

Poor crow who is going to be eaten soon.

ahahhahaaaaaaaaaaa

That was a demolition. By far a lopsided butt kicking.

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