ShareIf the Versus channel hadn’t come to our rescue and brought us the all-Quebec light heavyweight fight between Jean Pascal and Adrian Diaconu Friday night, I might be saying “zut alors!” Instead, we get to watch a tres bien match-up that’s on track to sell 22,000 tickets north of the border, where boxing is hot and a lot of quality boxers now roam, including Monsieurs Diaconu and Pascal.
I have my doubts it’ll rise quite to Fight of the Year finalist levels, but there’s a compelling dynamic between Pascal, probably the more physically talented fighter, and Diaconu, the bigger fighter who’s been at light heavyweight the whole time Pascal has been at super middleweight. Likewise, these two men are not afraid to swap leather. Diaconu comes in as the betting favorite, but Pascal is a popular upset pick. It’s about a fitty-fitty fight. Versus is mon ami for picking it up.
Pascal was in a Fight of the Year finalist in 2009, against Carl Froch. He was the faster guy, I thought, but he has a tendency to get sloppy and he got dragged into a slugfest with Froch. I thank him for it, because he made the fight more interesting for it, but it wasn’t as if he was playing to his assets — speed of hand, speed of foot. He lost the fight, but raised his esteem, as his previous big stage showing was a shaky performance on ESPN2 that would have set up a bout with Edison Miranda if he’d fought better. Pascal is at his best when he’s circling and countering, and his counter left hook is particularly potent. His money punch when he’s leading is an overhand right. Defensively, he’s sloppy (there’s that word again) but when he keeps his gloves up, he absorbs a lot of punches on his arms.
At 5’11”, he’ll have a couple inches on Diaconu, a stubby sort of light heavyweight. Word is that Pascal walks around at 185 or so, and has had trouble shrinking down to super middleweight. If true, that negates some of the potential Diaconu advantage. Additional word comes that Pascal now thinks he’s a better fighter from the Froch loss, and having served as Froch’s sparring partner for his fight with Jermain Taylor, fared much better in the boxing/moving department and as such didn’t have so much trouble with Froch.
Something I notice about Diaconu, which I don’t see a lot of people point out, is that he’s a bit of a counterpuncher himself. He was at his best attacking Rico Hoye and Chris Henry, his two best wins, when he stalked forward with his guard up, waited for them to throw something a little casual, timed it and landed his straight right or left hook. It’s kind of weird to watch a stocky pressure fighter do it that way, but it works. When he gets inside, he does more typical small guy/pressure fighter stuff, i.e., goes to the body. Defensively, his high guard serves him well although, like a lot of come-forward shorter boxers, he is very vulnerable to the uppercut.
Diaconu faded late in the Henry fight, but he says he’s fixed that by focusing on his conditioning in this camp. He actually reported at a mandatory weigh-in lighter than Pascal.
Both men can punch some, although neither has gaudy knockout ratios; Pascal’s is better, but again, that’s at super middleweight. Both men have sturdy chins, although both have been rocked. Both have had to dig deep in grueling fights. Neither has the strategic advantage of turf, what with both being based out of Quebec. There’s a lot of even stuff here.
To me, the major question is whether Pascal can stick to stick and move. I’m not sure he can. If he can, he has a far better chance of winning this fight. There’s a sense out there that Pascal is the better boxer, but I’m not convinced of that. Diaconu is smart, and does a lot of relatively polished things, like punching then turning to reset his offense. So even if Pascal can stick and move, it won’t be easy for him.
I’ve gone back and forth about who will win this fight all day long. But I’m siding with Diaconu. I think he is the bigger man, Pascal’s declarations to the contrary; he’s smarter and faster than he is given credit for; and Pascal too often gets carried away by the moment and his technique degenerates. Diaconu is the more consistent of the two, as well, if not the more physically gifted or dynamic. Any result, from Diaconu knockout to Pascal knockout, is plausible. But I’m going to go with Diaconu by decision, of the eight to four/seven to five variety, in a fight that makes me say, “mon dieu!”
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