As match-ups between boxing archetypes go, “natural counterpuncher vs. natural counterpuncher” might be the most dreaded, likely as they are to degenerate into an unappetizing gruel where feints outnumber blows landed. But on rare occasions, they can be spiced up into something palatable, even mouth-watering, which is the dish on the menu Saturday on HBO.
Nonito Donaire is the 2012 Fighter of the Year and the lineal junior featherweight champion. Guillermo Rigondeaux is his number one challenger, one of the all-time great amateurs and perhaps the most threatening opposition of Donaire’s extraordinarily accomplished career. Donaire has been hyping his own vulnerability by acknowledging that he is more focused on his impending fatherhood than boxing these days, either out of extreme candor or in an attempt to hype one of the fight’s central appeals, which is that it could be very competitive. And while Donaire and Rigondeaux fights aren’t always thrilling affairs independently, both have such explosive speed and power that the counterpuncher détente could go nuclear at any moment.
Despite its enticing elements, Donaire-Rigondeaux probably won’t make anyone forget how the Top Rank-Golden Boy Cold War means we couldn’t get the tastier Donaire-Abner Mares bout. Standing on its own, though, Donaire-Rigondeaux remains one of the best fights on the 2013 calendar, past or future.
The counterpuncher vs. counterpuncher element might drag down the action, but it’s also part and parcel of what makes the bout competitive, and competitiveness is a major element of sports drama. Donaire, one of the five or so best fighters in the world, has most looked like one when an opponent is coming straight toward him, a la Fernando Montiel or Vic Darchinyan, and his sensational qualities are transformed into tepid ones when his opponent forces him to take the lead, a la Wilfredo Vazquez, Jr. or Omar Narvaez.
Rigondeaux is a better counterpuncher than all of them. He’s also absurdly cagey, with a propensity for varying his punch speed or shifting his feet unpredictably to keep his opponent guessing. Montiel might’ve been the craftiest guy Donaire has faced in recent years, but he was a relatively straightforward boxer-puncher, and Rigo has a longer list of tricks from his amateur days, and all those amateur fights have turned Rigo into a laser-accurate puncher who places shots just right. And the match-up problem Rigo poses to Donaire doesn’t end there. Rigo is the fastest opponent Donaire has probably ever faced – for the first time since I can remember, Donaire will be facing someone in his elite speed class. He is at or near the top of Donaire’s list of opponents who can hit the hardest. And Donaire has never faced such a committed body puncher, one who can and will score body punch knockouts. Throw in the Donaire “pregnant wife” angle and how much of a distraction that has been in his camp (along with a public split with controversial strength and conditioning coach Victor Conte), and you can see why more than a few sharp boxing scribes are picking Rigo to win.
Let’s not forget, though, that Donaire is where he is for a reason, and Rigo has struggled here and there as a pro. Donaire’s left hook is one of the most lethal punches in boxing, and while some of his opponents have survived to the final bell in recent years, rarely do they escape undamaged. Robert Marroquin was able to badly buzz Rigo in his last fight, and Marroquin, while a fine puncher, is no Donaire. Ricardo Cordoba even dropped Rigo with a jab, and while Rigo wasn’t badly hurt, it wasn’t some fluke knockdown, either – Rigo spent most of the rest of the fight playing keep away and gave away rounds out of excess of caution. (Cordoba also bothered Rigo some with his height and length, another advantage for Donaire over Rigo, if not as pronounced as it was for Cordoba). As much as Rigo’s speed could bother Donaire, Rigo hasn’t faced anyone as fast as Donaire either.
I might’ve already been inclined to pick Donaire, but watching the tape, I noticed a flaw in Rigo’s approach that could prove especially fatal. Maybe he’s noticed it, too, and fixed it. But Marroquin buzzed Rigo with a left hook. Rigo, a southpaw, carries his right hand very, very low. Ostensibly such an approach invites people in to give Rigo counterpunching opportunities, and I think Rigo will be content to allow Donaire to lead. But Donaire sneaks that left hook in with exceptional quickness, and can do it even when he’s not in the ideal posture. That Rigo has a tendency to bring his jab back in low, I can pretty easily envision Donaire using a moment like that to put Rigo down. It could also happen when Rigo is reaching for Donaire’s body. And while Rigo has shown good recovery powers, he’s shown them against far lesser punchers than Donaire. Donaire, meanwhile, has never been stunned that I can recall, so Rigo’s chances of getting Donaire hurt and keeping him that way are a lot lower than vice versa. For Rigo to win, he’ll need to keep the temperature low and outbox an over-aggressive Donaire.
Let’s be bold: Donaire by third round knockout. The "Rigolution" Guillermo manager Gary Hyde warned of will have to wait.
