Saturday night, in the biggest fight of 2008, all the questions about Oscar De La Hoya versus Manny Pacquiao — boxing’s top star and its finest practitioner — shall be answered, and all the storylines shall be brought to an end.
We will find out if the 35-year-old De La Hoya is too old, or if Pacquiao, who began his career 40 pounds lighter than he will be Saturday night, is too small. We will see whether De La Hoya gets revenge on Pacquiao for reneging on a deal with his promotional company after receiving a literal suitcase full of money. We will determine whether Pacquiao’s trainer, Freddie Roach, gets his own revenge on De La Hoya for once enthusiastically hiring him then casually dismissing him. We will learn where the loyalties of Mexican fans lie between two men with whom they have had tempestuous relationships: De La Hoya for his perceived non-Mexican fighting style despite his heritage and contributions to the Latino community, Pacquiao for knocking out so many Mexicans but brawling in the face-first method they love. And we will discover whether the hopes of a nation, the Philippines, are fulfilled or dashed by its native son Pacquiao.
At the bout’s conclusion will stand a bully and star deferred (if De La Hoya crushes Pacquiao), or a newly-minted hero and the end of boxing’s biggest cash cow (if Pacquiao crushes De La Hoya), or two men whose reputations are enhanced because they fought beyond expectations, win or lose.
I have shared the keys to the fight, here and here, and explained some of the
stakes here. Now, it’s time to say how I expect it all to play out.
It is age and size where most of the drama of De La Hoya-Pacquiao lies. The two men will meet at 147 pounds, which is 17 pounds north of where Pacquiao started the year and 13 pounds south of De La Hoya’s career high. De La Hoya will turn 36 soon, and has betrayed signs of slippage. Pacquiao is a prime 29.
Age and weight alone will not decide the fight, however. They will combine with a variety of strategic and genetic factors.
If Pacquiao wins, it will look something like this: The speedier Pacquiao employs adept head movement to avoid De La Hoya’s jab, which controls range and sets up his knockout left hook. Once inside, Pacquiao unleashes quick combinations, mixing in body punches to slow De La Hoya down. Pacquiao carries his formidable power to his new weight, so the blows do severe damage to De La Hoya, who has always taken a punch well, even against bigger men. When the combinations end, Pacquiao steps out at angles to avoid counters.
And when De La Hoya does land, the world finds out that Pacquiao, who himself has always taken a punch well, also can handle bigger men’s shots. De La Hoya, paralyzed by the head games Roach has been playing with him about his alleged inability to “pull the trigger,” is too psyched out to mount much of an offense, anyway. Late in the fight, the 35-year-old who has exhibited occasional stamina problems and may be drained from trying to make a weight he hasn’t made in seven years, is too worn down from all of this and his accumulated ring years to defend himself.
Is any of that credible? Most of it, at minimum, is not laughable.
Pacquiao trainer Freddie Roach has acknowledged that Pacquiao’s speed has diminished with the weight, and fast though De La Hoya may be, Pacquiao should still be faster. At least one extremely sharp boxing journalist who has observed Pacquiao in sparring has said his power looks better than ever. The focus of his training has been to avoid De La Hoya’s jab. And Pacquiao has always sparred against bigger men and says he can take their punches.
The problem is, all of it has to be just right for Pacquiao to win. And there are too many unknowns, even with illuminating evidence. For instance: Taking the punches of decent bigger men in sparring is not the same as taking punches, sans headgear, from even a borderline elite boxer and naturally bigger man like De La Hoya. That De La Hoya left hook has spelled the doom of a great many fighters Pacquiao’s size, even in the days when De La Hoya was a lightweight (135 lbs.) like Pacquiao was in his June debut in the division.
And De La Hoya brings more of his own arguments to the fight besides a left hook. Because Pacquiao focuses on offense, he is as hittable as a tee ball, and De La Hoya connected plenty against defensive wizard Floyd Mayweather last year. If trainer Nacho Beristain teaches De La Hoya anything, it will be improved counter-punching, which has given Pacquiao the greatest trouble of his career via Beristain charge Juan Manuel Marquez. De La Hoya is a smart fighter, and if Pacquiao has some success, De La Hoya has shown the capacity to adjust; Pacquiao has become a much more technical boxer in recent years, but he still wins more with his physical gifts than his tactical decisions, so if things go wrong, he better have a far better back-up plan than ever before.
I have a nagging pull toward thinking that Pacquiao can pull it out. But a big part of me thinks that such a prediction would be a by-product of hype, honest or dishonest, even though some very smart boxing minds are predicting a Pacquiao win. Roach’s hype is honest. He does truly seem to believe Pacquiao can make this caper happen. But there have been all kinds of rumors tossed around about De La Hoya having trouble in sparring and old injuries resurfacing, some of which may be true but the rest of which border on the ridiculous and have the whiff of misdirection. No matter how many ways I think about it, though, I keep coming back to De La Hoya’s size and versatility superiority being so pronounced.
I once feared this fight would be a circus act. A circus act won’t do. But a number of factors have led me to believe it will be competitive at least for a while. This fight, by itself, won’t save or ruin boxing. On the other hand, if it goes the way I once expected, then it will only hurt the sport, and if my revised estimate proves accurate, then it will only be a boon. And if everyone comes out of it looking pretty, it increases the options for a very financially promising and legitimately exciting assortment of potential fights involving De La Hoya, Pacquiao, Ricky Hatton, Marquez and maybe even an un-retiring Mayweather.
My prediction: De La Hoya by convincing decision. At some point fairly early in the fight, I expect De La Hoya to land a punch that makes Pacquiao realize he’s in with someone who can hurt him more than anyone else ever has. He’s too fearless to give up in a situation like that, but his fearless charges came fewer and far between against Marquez in both fights as he realized he was going to miss and get tagged for his efforts. In the later rounds, as De La Hoya tires, Pacquiao might find more opportunities to attack freely, and narrow things on the scorecards some. But it won’t be enough.
Confidence: 60 percent. Maybe it won’t be a decision; an early knockout by De La Hoya is not out of the question. If Pacquiao’s defense is significantly improved — I mean, really significantly — and he handles De La Hoya’s shots better than I expect him to, then it’s his to lose, because even though I don’t think Pacquiao will be able to hurt De La Hoya, I can absolutely see him thoroughly outworking him.
My allegiance: I’m not as sour on De La Hoya as some, and while my opinion of him in the ring has declined as a result of taking this fight as his last then saying he probably wouldn’t retire, overall I rather like him and what he’s done for the sport. But Pacquiao is one of my favorites, and while I worry about whether his personality can sell in the United States, I’d far rather have Pacquiao as the figurehead of boxing, owing to his almost demonic, ultra-exciting fighting style. I’ll be cheering him on. If he wins, it will be one hell of a story, won’t it? The little guy pulls off the upset, and his native Philippines becomes, for at least one night, the happiest place on the planet…
(Tomorrow, join us for a round-up of story and information links that will tell you everything you need to know about the big event, then don’t forget to join us for the live blog Saturday night.)
